THE WINDSOR FRAMEWORK

Did Brussels really just give London what it wanted?

With the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement looming in just over a months’ time, the European Commission and the UK government have reached an agreement on new, revised implementing measures for the Northern Ireland protocol.

London’s motives in pushing the negotiations forward were clear. Affected businesses, like the retail sector, have been heavily lobbying No10, and the devolved Northern Irish assembly is in limbo. 

But what were the European Commission’s motives to compromise, as seems to have been the case from public reports?

First of all, we should assess whether Brussels has moved at all. It certainly looks as if they have applied maximum flexibility.

There appears to be some slight softening when it comes to goods travelling into NI, similar to going through a “nothing to declare” lane at the airport. Although this is contingent on the UK opening up its databases to the EU. And forms will still be needed. 

The devolved assembly gets more power to wield an emergency brake, although in reality this may never be used given the threshold, and the EU would still have the right to retaliate. It looks good though, a democratic measure, one surely intended to win over the DUP.

On VAT the UK seems now to be able to apply reduced rates to a higher number of categories of goods than allowed under EU law, and NI can diverge from the EU on excise duties, allowing Sunak to claim that lower tax on beer was coming to Belfast. Yet fundamentally EU VAT and state aid rules still apply.

Overall, it seems as though Commission President Von der Leyen and her team have played the politics extremely well, moving enough to give No10 some “red meat” it felt it needed to sell the new deal domestically without crossing any of their red lines.

Prime Minister Sunak will now sell this deal hard, and, one suspects, Brussels will play along publicly by allowing him to make the running without awkward fact checks. 

For years now the European Commission has publicly stated its willingness to work towards finding a mutually acceptable solution to the protocol. Presumably it has now seen some mileage in using the upcoming anniversary as some kind of deadline. 

The reality of course is that Brexit has long become a political non-issue in the EU. People have moved on. The emotions that still exist in the UK around it just don’t exist  on the continent. The absence of any headlines in Tuesday’s newspapers speaks volumes. The geopolitical situation is favourable to finding a deal but in this instance probably did not play too much.

If, as further analysis of the complicated Windsor Framework emerges, it transpires none of the EU’s red lines have been crossed – as appears to be the case on first look – then this is an example of “exceptional statecraft”, using smoke and mirrors to maximum effect.

But let’s not make a mistake. This will not be the last we hear of the NI protocol, it will need permanent management. Windsor is the start of that long and tedious, technical process. But if it defuses the politics and emotion in London, then this can be considered a win for Brussels.